Now I've seen some news articles and message board posts asking "What will the swine flu do to College Football this season ?", and I have answer: "It will help Bama win some ball games" (Try to follow my messed-up logic).
To prove my point, check out what I was able to throw together in a matter of blogospheric minutes. I call it 6 degrees of Swine Flu Separation for the 2009 College Football Season. *Note: I am sure there are plenty of holes in my argument, but Hey, I am a Bama fan, not a scientist or a lawyer.
The Facts:
1) I will call into play the six degrees of separation theory. Popularized by Kevin Bacon, this theory refers to the idea that, if a person is one step away from each person they know and two steps away from each person who is known by one of the people they know, then everyone is at most six steps away from any other person on Earth.
2) When modeling an infectious disease, you have people who are susceptible to a disease, those who are infected and those who are removed. And the removed is often, usually the recovered people who might have some immunity. Remember Will Smith in I am Legend?
3) According to the government's website the H1N1 virus (Swine Flu) is "potentially contagious as long as they are symptomatic and possible for up to 7 days following illness onset".
3) According to the government's website the H1N1 virus (Swine Flu) is "potentially contagious as long as they are symptomatic and possible for up to 7 days following illness onset".
4) The government is predicting a pandemic (global outbreak) of the Swine Flu this season. Smaller outbreaks are referred to as epidemics. An epidemic occurs in a a given population during a given period.
5) The Duke Football team recently experienced an outbreak of the Swine Flu. You can read more here. According to this article, half of the roster contracted the swine flu.
The 6 degrees of Swine Flu Separation for the 2009 College Football Season Theory:
Using the above stated facts, I will show you how Alabama will win some games due to the outbreak that originated at Duke University. I am only looking at an epidemic throughout the SEC during the 2009 College Football Season.
Using the above stated facts, I will show you how Alabama will win some games due to the outbreak that originated at Duke University. I am only looking at an epidemic throughout the SEC during the 2009 College Football Season.
My rules:
#1 I start with Duke
#2 Any team Duke Plays catches the Swine Flu and that team passes it on to its remaining schedule
#3 Swine Flu devastation last 2 weeks, but the team is still capable of passing it on for the rest of their schedule. The government says 7 days, but when are they ever right (especially on healthcare)?
#4 Swine Flu devastation results in a loss for the next 2 weeks after infestation. This assumes that half the roster will be out of commission each week.
#5 The Crimson Tide is the only immune team in the country. This is because Saban insisted on recruiting football players that bleed crimson. Crimson appears to be the only gene immune to Swine Flu.
The Case Studies:
A) Duke vs Army 9/12, Army vs Ball State 9/19, Ball State vs Auburn 9/26 Auburn vs UT 10/03
Right before Bama plays UT on 10/24, half of UT's team will be sick. Eric Berry will be puking into his "Berry For Heisman" trucker hat while Lane Kiffin wears adult diapers to keep Rocky Top from going to the bottom. Easy victory.
B) Duke vs Army 9/12, Army vs Tulane 10/03, Tulane vs LSU 10/31,
We play a very sick LSWho on 11/07. Another victory from the Swine Flu. Maybe Auburn can lend them some toilet paper. I don't think they will be needing it for Toomer Square.
The Alternative Theory:
OK. I am realist. Alabama may not be immune to the Swine Flu. Here is an alternative theory.
1) The Swine Flu only lasts 2 weeks
2) After 2 weeks, it does not affect the rest of your schedule
3) Teams can only be infected once
This is what the infection schedule would look like. Notice that Alabama and LSU will not be infected. If the swine flu takes out half of the roster of each team infected, those teams would likely lose the games during the outbreak. In this theory, Alabama or LSU would have the best odds of staying undefeated.
Infection Date Host
SEC East
University of Florida 17-Oct Arkansas
University of Georgia 10-Oct Tennessee
University of Kentucky 31-Oct Mississippi State
University of South Carolina 24-Oct Vanderbilt
University of Tennessee 3-Oct Auburn
Vanderbilt University 17-Oct Georgia
SEC West
University of Alabama
University of Arkansas 10-Oct Auburn
Auburn University 26-Sep Ball State
Louisiana State University
University of Mississippi 24-Oct Arkansas
Mississippi State University 24-Oct Florida
Remember that I threw this together in a few minutes. If something doesn't check out, email me at info@regurge.us
Roll Tide.
